A day to day acount of the whacky and wonderful world of Muggaz - i tend to be having too much fun these days, and often cannot remember moments due to debauchery - its time the internet repayed my loyalty by recording my antics.
interesting.
Published on August 17, 2004 By Muggaz In International
Australian foreign minister, Alexander Downer, has made moves towards a dramatic policy shift towards Beijing, declaring the ANZUS (Australia, New Zealand, and United States) treaty as ‘symbolic’

After talks with Key Chinese leaders, a strategic relationship between the Asian-Pacific nations looks to be on the cards.

After 50 years of close ties with the United States, I can only see the US-Australian relationship deteriorating should Australia collaborate with the Chinese economic powerhouse. The main issue at hand is the independence of Taiwan, with the United States recognising the nation as a sovereign entity separate to China, and of course, China’s stance that Taiwan is not independent of the Beijing government.

Richard Armitage – the US deputy secretary of state, has twice indicated that the ANZUS relationship is more than symbolic, suggesting the treaty would be invoked if either US or Australia troops were taking casualties. The Australian stance on the treaty is that it is only to be invoked should our home territories come under attack. So, in short, if the Chinese were to attack Taiwan, The United States would expect the Australian armed forces to assist in the defence of Taiwan. Australian policy interpretation states otherwise. The treaty has been invoked on only one occasion – 9/11.

As a citizen of Australia, I believe it is within our national interests to recalibrate our relationship with our neighbours, as the perception of Australia in the region is that of an arrogant western country in the middle of Asia. For security and economic purposes, a Sino-Australian relationship would only be beneficial for both parties involved.

Should Taiwan have the audacity to make a move for independence, it would create dramatic turbulence in the region, and I would argue that it is completely unfair of the USA to expect the Australian defence forces to intervene on behalf of the Taiwanese movement and American foreign policy.

In an ideal world, the USA would not be to concerned with Australia’s diplomatic ties amid an Isolationist nation such as China, however, we know this is not an ideal world, and the Chinese and US secretly hate each other, and both are vying for the title of world superpower. The USA holds that title for the time being, however, in 20 years we will have a very different political climate, with China’s communist economic policies a shadow of the past.

Currently, 6% of Australia’s population was born in Asia, and that 6% does not include first and second generation Australian’s of Asian decent. As Australia slowly but surely removes itself from the ‘White Australia’ immigration policy, it is only a matter of time before Australia is recognised as a ‘Eurasian’ nation.

Hopefully, Taiwan, Australia, China and the United States don’t come to loggerheads, however, it is very interesting for us, as Australian’s, to see our staunchly pro-US government make this dramatic shift in policy, and it makes for an interesting political climate.

Watch this space…

BAM!!!

Comments
on Aug 17, 2004
I think Downer is making a mistake.

I do not foresee a time when China will emerge as THE world superpower. Why?

1.) China is not a democracy and will not be one. The chinese citizens have been reduced to mere 'robots' by the communist state there. There will NOT be another Tiananmen revolution. Leaving apart Bush and gang, the US is still a vibrant democracy.

2.) I agree that dvelopment is happening at a rapid pace in China. But ask anyone who has actually vivited China and he will tell you that the high rise bulidings, corporate offices, etc. can only be seen in the big cities like Beijing, Shanghai, etc. Recently one of my friends visited China to strike a fertilizer deal and he saw a China which was opulent and poor at the same time. The poor from the villages cannot come to the cities for work as they need special passes for that. They are not free to even move around in their country. talk about an emerging superpower.

3.) The most IMPORTANT point. Whenever in history, China has been powerful, she has flexed her muscles. Look at her today.
It wants territory from every one of its neighbors: Xinjiang, Tibet (both annexed), Siberia (Russia), Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim, Ladakh (India), the Spratly Islands (Vietnam), Mischief Reef (the Philippines), the Senkaku Islands (Japan), Taiwan. And every one of these claims is based on extremely dubious, manufactured history. Their next demand will be for Vienna becaus the Mongols besieged it in the middle ages.

You said:
"Should Taiwan have the audacity to make a move for independence, it would create dramatic turbulence in the region"

I don't understand why the Taiwanese should not go for independence? They are a soveriegn state in their own right. If China can claim Taiwan for the reasons it suggests, England would claim Australia and NZ tomorrow too.

The US acts as a balance in East Asia and keeps the Chinese away from mischief. Australia cosying upto the Chinese at the cost of relations with the US would mean a free rein for the Chinese over much of that part of the world. It would not be long before the Chinese attempts to bully the Aussies too.

And you don't have to cosy up to the Chinese to shaw that you are an 'Eurasian' nation. You should continue what you are doing and that is welcoming immigrants from all over the world to your country. That's my 2 cents worth

on Aug 17, 2004
Wow - Thanks for your well thought out reply!!!

As far as China being a democracy, the people need to be educated, and I am the first to admit that China is in some respects, still a backward country... I may be naive, but I beleive an alliance with countries like Australia would go a long way into changing this.

Flexing muscles - China is no worse than the USA in my humble opinion. Tibet and Taiwan are unfortunate blemishes, but they are in the same league as Vietnam for the USA... when talking about imperialism, China is the lesser of two evils. You can't really speculate that as soon as the US lies down, that China will go on a rampage seizing lands - it's not really fair.

Like I said, Ideally, we can buddy up with both - but it doesn't look like that will be possible.

BAM!!!
on Aug 17, 2004
Interesting. The few Aussies I ever met would rather be a Democracy. When one is willing to deal with the devil, he should not be suprised to receive his pichfork up the A**.

Before you decide to deal with the devil just remember what happened to Austria just before WWII. They gave up their rights and lost millions of sons in the wars for Hitler.

Just because you don't like who the US president is right now don't through your freedom away later. Do you realy thing the Chinese will let you choose who leads you after they have you under their boot?
on Aug 17, 2004
The separation of state power that led the Kuomintang to leave the mainland for Taiwan is dramatically different to the situation whereby England cut its colonial ties with Australia, but I that's not really important.

China is important to Australia - it's our second largest trading partner and is estimated to challenge Japan for the number one spot within the next decade or so. The US is slowly slipping down in raw trade numbers, although this will likely turn around now there's a free trade agreement.

In the event that the US was to fail in the Pacific and go under, Japan would most likely overnight complete construction of a nuclear arsenal. It has the capacity and it's too close to China to risk being a target. In that case Australia would be fairly safe. Any push for Pacific dominance by either of the two powers would be met by attacks on supply lines by the other, thus cancelling out the threat of Chinese attack.

We have nothing to lose by being neutral in a dispute over Taiwan, and in my opinion that's a better option than supporting either the Americans or the Chinese. The Americans will have to understand the strategic consequences of Australian action and the Chinese will consider it a considerable concession on our behalf . Win-win really.
on Aug 17, 2004
Just because you don't like who the US president is right now don't through your freedom away later. Do you realy thing the Chinese will let you choose who leads you after they have you under their boot?


Wow - People really do see the China as the devil huh?

IT all goes back to the saying people fear what they dont know. Chinese intenetions have never been exceptionally clear, so people merely speculate that they are this great authorotarian power. Do I beleive it will ever get to a time where China will control Australia? not in my lifetime - I only need to worry about the here and now, and as far as the National interests of Australia go, economical and security wise, a stretegic alliance with China would be beneficial for us.

and Olikara, I have another point for you - why do you think the Pakistani government were so eagre to help the United States when it came to Afghanistan? so they could have a nuclear ally to assist them should they come to loggerheads with India... dont be so naive as to think there are no hidden agenda's... I am sure that is one of the conditions stipulated by the Pakistani government, and one of the only reasons Musharef (sp?) is still in power.

BAM!!!
on Aug 17, 2004
The official position of the US is to maintain the status quo. The US does not recognize Taiwan as a sovereign government, although the US does insist that any reunification be peaceful.

on Aug 17, 2004
Tibet and Taiwan are unfortunate blemishes, but they are in the same league as Vietnam for the USA... when talking about imperialism, China is the lesser of two evils.


No muggaz, they are not in the same league. The US supposedly went into 'Nam to 'save' it from communism. They never wanted to make Vietnam the 51st state. The Chinese want to 'grab' whatever they can. And yes, the US is stronger today and flexes it's muscles more than China but then a 'democratic' devil is always better than a 'communist' one.(or should I say 'pseudo-communist' one).

dont be so naive as to think there are no hidden agenda's... I am sure that is one of the conditions stipulated by the Pakistani government, and one of the only reasons Musharef (sp?) is still in power.


Sure, muggaz, I agree with you here about the US-Pak deal. But then remember in any such 'special relationship' there's nalways a horse and it's rider. No prizes for guessing who's the rider here.
Another thing, do you really think that the US would nuke India for Pakistan. Forget it! India's IT turnover alone was more than Pakistan's GDP last year. For America, the grass would be greener on the Indian side.
on Aug 17, 2004
IT all goes back to the saying people fear what they dont know. Chinese intenetions have never been exceptionally clear, so people merely speculate that they are this great authorotarian power. Do I beleive it will ever get to a time where China will control Australia? not in my lifetime - I only need to worry about the here and now, and as far as the National interests of Australia go, economical and security wise, a stretegic alliance with China would be beneficial for us.


Says: Nevil Chamberland, he thought the same way man. I think 8 million Russian dead would also be proof on how one can be so wrong to think that way. The sad thing is Russia even thought they were a Stratiegic Allie. Ooops your not Russian so you would not care.

"Those who forget the past are condimed to repeat it." General Sherman